Lesson 1Profit and cash flow basics: simple monthly gross margin and operating profit lines; basic cash flow items (deferred revenue, collections lag)Create straightforward yet insightful monthly profit and cash views, covering gross margin, operating profit, and key cash flow elements like collections lag, deferred revenue, and payment timing for major expense categories.
Modeling revenue, COGS, and gross marginEstimating operating expenses and EBITDACollections lag and accounts receivable logicDeferred revenue and prepayment handlingCash timing for payroll and vendor paymentsLesson 2Scenario and sensitivity setup: setting up scenario toggles, data tables, and one-click switches for alternative assumptionsDiscover practical methods to test different assumptions using scenario toggles, driver cells, and data tables, allowing one-click comparison of downside, base, and upside scenarios without disrupting core model logic.
Defining base, downside, and upside casesBuilding scenario selector and driver cellsUsing Excel and Sheets data tables safelyDesigning one-click assumption switchoversTracking and documenting scenario changesLesson 3Customer flow & cohort modelling: simple cohort setup, retention curves, cohort-based revenue vs aggregate methodsLearn to model customer movements over time using cohorts, from acquisition to churn and expansion, and compare cohort-based revenue forecasts with simpler aggregate methods for various business models.
Mapping customer lifecycle and key statesSetting up monthly acquisition cohortsDesigning and applying retention curvesModeling expansion, downgrades, and churnComparing cohort vs aggregate revenueLesson 4Choosing the spreadsheet platform and file conventions: Google Sheets vs Excel Online, naming and folder structureChoose between Google Sheets and Excel Online for collaboration, performance, and integrations, then set up clear file naming, versioning, and folder structures to keep your 12-month forecast organised and verifiable.
Comparing Google Sheets and Excel OnlineCollaboration, permissions, and access controlPerformance limits and add-in integrationsFile naming and versioning standardsFolder structure for models and exportsLesson 5Model robustness and reusability: using named ranges, structured input table, separation of inputs/calcs/outputsImplement modelling best practices for durable and reusable forecasts, including named ranges, structured input tables, consistent formulae, and clear separation of inputs, calculations, and reporting outputs.
Using named ranges and structured referencesSeparating inputs, calculations, and outputsColor-coding and labeling modeling conventionsError checks, alerts, and reasonableness testsPreparing the model for reuse and handoffLesson 6Revenue calculations: link between new MRR, expansion, churn; monthly MRR roll-forward formulas and ARR conversionConnect new sales, expansion, and churn into a monthly MRR roll-forward, convert MRR to ARR, and reconcile revenue with customer counts, ensuring formulae are clear, testable, and easy to verify.
Defining MRR, ARR, and related metricsLinking new, expansion, and churned MRRBuilding monthly MRR roll-forward schedulesConverting MRR to ARR and revenue linesReconciling revenue with customer countsLesson 7Workbook architecture: recommended tabs (Assumptions, Input Dashboard, Monthly Revenue Schedule, Customer Flow/Cohorts, Cost Schedule, P&L Summary, Sensitivity Scenarios, Audit & Logs)Design a neat workbook layout with dedicated tabs for assumptions, inputs, revenue, customers, costs, P&L, and scenarios, ensuring smooth flows, easy navigation, and separation of calculations from presentation.
Standard tab list and naming conventionsAssumptions and input dashboard structureMonthly revenue and customer flow schedulesCost schedules and P&L summary layoutScenario, audit, and log worksheet designLesson 8Core inputs and scenarios: defining and organising key assumptions (starting MRR, new MRR growth, churn, ARPA, pricing tiers, seasonality)Define and organise core business drivers for your forecast, including starting MRR, new sales, churn, pricing tiers, ARPA, and seasonality, structured for easy updates and scenario testing.
Identifying essential revenue driver inputsCapturing starting MRR and opening balancesModeling new MRR growth and sales capacityRepresenting churn, downgrades, and reactivationHandling ARPA, pricing tiers, and seasonalityLesson 9Cost modelling: modelling salaries, hosting, marketing, and tools by month; mapping hires and ramp; variable costs tied to usage or revenueTranslate headcount plans, vendor contracts, and marketing plans into a monthly cost model, covering fixed and variable costs, hiring ramps, and usage-based expenses that grow with revenue or activity.
Classifying fixed vs variable operating costsModeling salary, benefits, and payroll taxesPlanning hiring dates, ramps, and backfillsScheduling marketing, software, and hosting spendLinking variable costs to usage or revenue
