Lesson 1Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA): accessing GDP data, real vs nominal GDP, quarterly annualization, revisionsLearn how to access BEA GDP releases, distinguish nominal from real GDP, understand quarterly annualized growth rates, and track revisions across vintages to evaluate the evolving macro narrative.
Navigating BEA GDP data portalsReal vs nominal GDP and deflatorsQuarterly annualized growth calculationsGDP components and expenditure sharesTracking GDP revisions over timeLesson 2Inflation datasets: CPI and PCE—definitions, core vs headline, measurement differences, locating time seriesExplore CPI and PCE inflation concepts, headline versus core measures, coverage and weighting differences, and how to locate, download, and interpret official inflation time series for macro and investment decision-making.
Definitions of CPI and PCE price indexesHeadline vs core: what is excluded and whyMeasurement differences and data sourcesLocating CPI and PCE series in FREDInterpreting inflation trends and volatilityLesson 3International organisations and cross-checks: IMF and World Bank time series for context and consistencyUnderstand how IMF and World Bank databases complement national sources, how to pull comparable cross-country time series, and how to cross-check levels, growth rates, and definitions to ensure consistency in macro analysis.
IMF Data Portal and key macro datasetsWorld Bank WDI and topic‑based searchesHarmonizing country codes and unitsComparing series across multiple providersSpotting inconsistencies and data breaksLesson 4Leading indicators databases: ISM PMI, Conference Board LEI, consumer confidence indices—where to find and how to useExamine major leading indicator datasets such as ISM PMI, Conference Board LEI, and consumer confidence indices, learning where to find them, how they are constructed, and how to use them in forecasting cycles.
ISM manufacturing and services PMIsConference Board LEI componentsConsumer confidence and sentiment indexesDiffusion indexes and threshold levelsUsing leading data in recession modelsLesson 5Data quality, revisions, and how to cite sources with month/year (best practices)Develop a disciplined approach to assessing macro data quality, understanding preliminary versus revised releases, tracking historical revisions, and correctly citing sources with month and year in professional research outputs.
First releases vs revised macro dataCommon sources of revisions and biasesUsing revision histories and vintagesChecking documentation and footnotesCiting data with date and source detailsLesson 6Treasury market and yield curve data: 2y, 10y, and other maturities; calculating spreads and reading auction resultsLearn how to obtain Treasury yield data across maturities, compute key spreads such as 2s10s, interpret yield curve shapes, and read auction results for signals about demand, liquidity, and policy expectations.
Sources for Treasury yield curve dataOn‑the‑run vs off‑the‑run securitiesCalculating 2s10s and other key spreadsInterpreting curve steepening and inversionReading Treasury auction result tablesLesson 7Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS): unemployment, payrolls, labour force participation, wage measures and seasonalityGain practical skills in accessing BLS labour market data, including unemployment, payrolls, participation, and wage measures, and learn how seasonal adjustment and survey design affect interpretation of trends.
Household vs establishment surveysUnemployment rate and U‑3 vs U‑6Nonfarm payrolls and sector breakdownsLabor force participation and demographicsWage and earnings measures, seasonal effectsLesson 8FRED and other aggregators: downloading series, frequency conversion, basic smoothing and trend extractionLearn how to use FRED and similar aggregators to search, download, and transform macro series, adjust frequencies, apply simple smoothing and trend filters, and organise data for charting, comparison, and basic investment analysis.
Searching and bookmarking key macro seriesDownloading data in CSV and Excel formatsChanging data frequency and aggregation methodsApplying moving averages and simple filtersUsing FRED graphs and custom dashboardsLesson 9Practical checklist: step-by-step guide to assemble the specific 12–24 month dataset required by the case study (GDP, unemployment, inflation, policy rate, yield curve, one leading indicator)Follow a structured workflow to build a 12–24 month macro dataset for a case study, including GDP, unemployment, inflation, policy rates, yield curve spreads, and one leading indicator, ready for charts and regressions.
Defining the case study horizon and scopeSelecting core macro and market variablesAligning frequencies and calendar datesCleaning, labeling, and storing the datasetCreating summary charts and tablesLesson 10Federal Reserve releases and FOMC statements: how to find, read, and extract policy rate and guidanceLearn how to locate Federal Reserve statistical releases, FOMC statements, and minutes, extract policy rate paths and balance sheet data, and interpret forward guidance language for macro and market analysis.
Key Fed releases and publication calendarFinding FOMC statements and minutesIdentifying policy rate decisions and pathsReading forward guidance languageUsing SEP and dot plot information
