Lesson 1Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA): accessing GDP data, real vs nominal GDP, quarterly annualization, revisionsDiscover how to get BEA GDP reports, tell real GDP from nominal, grasp quarterly growth rates that are annualised, and follow data changes over time to understand the macro story as it develops.
Navigating BEA GDP data portalsReal vs nominal GDP and deflatorsQuarterly annualised growth calculationsGDP components and expenditure sharesTracking GDP revisions over timeLesson 2Inflation datasets: CPI and PCE—definitions, core vs headline, measurement differences, locating time seriesDive into CPI and PCE inflation ideas, headline against core measures, what they cover and how they weigh things differently, and ways to find, download, and make sense of official inflation data for macro and investment choices.
Definitions of CPI and PCE price indexesHeadline vs core: what is excluded and whyMeasurement differences and data sourcesLocating CPI and PCE series in FREDInterpreting inflation trends and volatilityLesson 3International organisations and cross-checks: IMF and World Bank time series for context and consistencyGrasp how IMF and World Bank data support national sources, how to get similar data across countries, and how to verify levels, growth rates, and meanings to keep macro analysis steady and reliable.
IMF Data Portal and key macro datasetsWorld Bank WDI and topic-based searchesHarmonising country codes and unitsComparing series across multiple providersSpotting inconsistencies and data breaksLesson 4Leading indicators databases: ISM PMI, Conference Board LEI, consumer confidence indices—where to find and how to useLook at main leading indicator sets like ISM PMI, Conference Board LEI, and consumer confidence measures, finding where they are, how they are made, and using them to predict economic cycles.
ISM manufacturing and services PMIsConference Board LEI componentsConsumer confidence and sentiment indexesDiffusion indexes and threshold levelsUsing leading data in recession modelsLesson 5Data quality, revisions, and how to cite sources with month/year (best practices)Build a careful method to check macro data quality, know first releases from updated ones, follow past changes, and properly reference sources with month and year in professional work.
First releases vs revised macro dataCommon sources of revisions and biasesUsing revision histories and vintagesChecking documentation and footnotesCiting data with date and source detailsLesson 6Treasury market and yield curve data: 2y, 10y, and other maturities; calculating spreads and reading auction resultsFind out how to get Treasury yield info for different times, work out main spreads like 2s10s, read yield curve patterns, and check auction outcomes for clues on demand, cash flow, and policy outlooks.
Sources for Treasury yield curve dataOn-the-run vs off-the-run securitiesCalculating 2s10s and other key spreadsInterpreting curve steepening and inversionReading Treasury auction result tablesLesson 7Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS): unemployment, payrolls, labor force participation, wage measures and seasonalityGet hands-on with BLS labour data access, covering unemployment, payrolls, participation, and wage info, and see how seasonal fixes and survey setups change how we read trends.
Household vs establishment surveysUnemployment rate and U-3 vs U-6Nonfarm payrolls and sector breakdownsLabor force participation and demographicsWage and earnings measures, seasonal effectsLesson 8FRED and other aggregators: downloading series, frequency conversion, basic smoothing and trend extractionMaster using FRED and like tools to search, download, and adjust macro data, change time scales, use basic smoothing and trend tools, and set up data for graphs, comparisons, and simple investment work.
Searching and bookmarking key macro seriesDownloading data in CSV and Excel formatsChanging data frequency and aggregation methodsApplying moving averages and simple filtersUsing FRED graphs and custom dashboardsLesson 9Practical checklist: step-by-step guide to assemble the specific 12–24 month dataset required by the case study (GDP, unemployment, inflation, policy rate, yield curve, one leading indicator)Use a clear step-by-step plan to put together a 12–24 month macro dataset for a case, including GDP, unemployment, inflation, policy rates, yield curve spreads, and one leading sign, set for charts and basic analysis.
Defining the case study horizon and scopeSelecting core macro and market variablesAligning frequencies and calendar datesCleaning, labelling, and storing the datasetCreating summary charts and tablesLesson 10Federal Reserve releases and FOMC statements: how to find, read, and extract policy rate and guidanceLearn to find Federal Reserve data releases, FOMC statements, and notes, pull out policy rate plans and balance sheet info, and read forward guidance words for macro and market insights.
Key Fed releases and publication calendarFinding FOMC statements and minutesIdentifying policy rate decisions and pathsReading forward guidance languageUsing SEP and dot plot information
