Lesson 1Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA): accessing GDP data, real vs nominal GDP, quarterly annualization, revisionsLearn to access BEA GDP releases, differentiate nominal from real GDP, grasp quarterly annualised growth rates, and monitor revisions across versions to evaluate the changing macro story for Singapore investors.
Navigating BEA GDP data portalsReal vs nominal GDP and deflatorsQuarterly annualised growth calculationsGDP components and expenditure sharesTracking GDP revisions over timeLesson 2Inflation datasets: CPI and PCE—definitions, core vs headline, measurement differences, locating time seriesExplore CPI and PCE inflation ideas, headline versus core measures, coverage and weighting variations, and methods to find, download, and interpret official inflation series for macro and investment decisions in Singapore.
Definitions of CPI and PCE price indexesHeadline vs core: what is excluded and whyMeasurement differences and data sourcesLocating CPI and PCE series in FREDInterpreting inflation trends and volatilityLesson 3International organisations and cross-checks: IMF and World Bank time series for context and consistencyUnderstand how IMF and World Bank databases support national sources, retrieve comparable cross-country time series, and cross-verify levels, growth rates, and definitions for consistent macro analysis applicable to Singapore.
IMF Data Portal and key macro datasetsWorld Bank WDI and topic-based searchesHarmonising country codes and unitsComparing series across multiple providersSpotting inconsistencies and data breaksLesson 4Leading indicators databases: ISM PMI, Conference Board LEI, consumer confidence indices—where to find and how to useExamine key leading indicator datasets like ISM PMI, Conference Board LEI, and consumer confidence indices, discover where to source them, their construction, and application in forecasting cycles for Singapore markets.
ISM manufacturing and services PMIsConference Board LEI componentsConsumer confidence and sentiment indexesDiffusion indexes and threshold levelsUsing leading data in recession modelsLesson 5Data quality, revisions, and how to cite sources with month/year (best practices)Build a systematic method to evaluate macro data quality, comprehend preliminary versus revised releases, track past revisions, and properly cite sources with month and year in professional outputs for Singapore research.
First releases vs revised macro dataCommon sources of revisions and biasesUsing revision histories and vintagesChecking documentation and footnotesCiting data with date and source detailsLesson 6Treasury market and yield curve data: 2y, 10y, and other maturities; calculating spreads and reading auction resultsLearn to obtain Treasury yield data across maturities, calculate key spreads like 2s10s, interpret yield curve shapes, and analyse auction results for insights on demand, liquidity, and policy expectations in Singapore.
Sources for Treasury yield curve dataOn-the-run vs off-the-run securitiesCalculating 2s10s and other key spreadsInterpreting curve steepening and inversionReading Treasury auction result tablesLesson 7Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS): unemployment, payrolls, labour force participation, wage measures and seasonalityAcquire practical abilities in accessing BLS labour market data, covering unemployment, payrolls, participation, and wage measures, and understand how seasonal adjustments and survey designs impact trend interpretation for Singapore.
Household vs establishment surveysUnemployment rate and U-3 vs U-6Nonfarm payrolls and sector breakdownsLabour force participation and demographicsWage and earnings measures, seasonal effectsLesson 8FRED and other aggregators: downloading series, frequency conversion, basic smoothing and trend extractionLearn to utilise FRED and similar aggregators to search, download, and transform macro series, adjust frequencies, apply basic smoothing and trend filters, and organise data for charting, comparison, and simple investment analysis in Singapore.
Searching and bookmarking key macro seriesDownloading data in CSV and Excel formatsChanging data frequency and aggregation methodsApplying moving averages and simple filtersUsing FRED graphs and custom dashboardsLesson 9Practical checklist: step-by-step guide to assemble the specific 12–24 month dataset required by the case study (GDP, unemployment, inflation, policy rate, yield curve, one leading indicator)Follow a structured process to construct a 12–24 month macro dataset for case studies, including GDP, unemployment, inflation, policy rates, yield curve spreads, and one leading indicator, prepared for charts and regressions in Singapore context.
Defining the case study horizon and scopeSelecting core macro and market variablesAligning frequencies and calendar datesCleaning, labelling, and storing the datasetCreating summary charts and tablesLesson 10Federal Reserve releases and FOMC statements: how to find, read, and extract policy rate and guidanceLearn to locate Federal Reserve statistical releases, FOMC statements, and minutes, extract policy rate paths and balance sheet data, and interpret forward guidance for macro and market analysis relevant to Singapore investors.
Key Fed releases and publication calendarFinding FOMC statements and minutesIdentifying policy rate decisions and pathsReading forward guidance languageUsing SEP and dot plot information
