Lesson 1Profit and cash flow basics: simple monthly gross margin and operating profit lines; basic cash flow items (deferred revenue, collections lag)Construct straightforward monthly profit and cash perspectives, featuring gross margin, operating profit, and core cash elements like collections delays, deferred revenue, and payment schedules for key expense areas in remote forecasting.
Modeling revenue, COGS, and gross marginEstimating operating expenses and EBITDACollections lag and accounts receivable logicDeferred revenue and prepayment handlingCash timing for payroll and vendor paymentsLesson 2Scenario and sensitivity setup: setting up scenario toggles, data tables, and one-click switches for alternative assumptionsDiscover hands-on methods to trial different assumptions via scenario switches, driver cells, and data tables, allowing quick comparisons of pessimistic, standard, and optimistic scenarios without disrupting the main model framework.
Defining base, downside, and upside casesBuilding scenario selector and driver cellsUsing Excel and Sheets data tables safelyDesigning one-click assumption switchoversTracking and documenting scenario changesLesson 3Customer flow & cohort modelling: simple cohort setup, retention curves, cohort-based revenue vs aggregate methodsGrasp modelling customer progression using cohorts, from gaining customers to losses and growth, and contrast cohort-driven revenue projections with basic aggregate techniques suited to various business types in remote settings.
Mapping customer lifecycle and key statesSetting up monthly acquisition cohortsDesigning and applying retention curvesModeling expansion, downgrades, and churnComparing cohort vs aggregate revenueLesson 4Choosing the spreadsheet platform and file conventions: Google Sheets vs Excel Online, naming and folder structureChoose between Google Sheets and Excel Online for teamwork, speed, and connections, then set up clear file names, versions, and folder systems to keep your 12-month forecast tidy and traceable for remote New Zealand teams.
Comparing Google Sheets and Excel OnlineCollaboration, permissions, and access controlPerformance limits and add-in integrationsFile naming and versioning standardsFolder structure for models and exportsLesson 5Model robustness and reusability: using named ranges, structured input table, separation of inputs/calcs/outputsImplement top modelling practices for durable, adaptable forecasts, using named ranges, organised input tables, uniform formulas, and clear divides between inputs, computations, and outputs to enhance remote usability.
Using named ranges and structured referencesSeparating inputs, calculations, and outputsColor-coding and labeling modeling conventionsError checks, alerts, and reasonableness testsPreparing the model for reuse and handoffLesson 6Revenue calculations: link between new MRR, expansion, churn; monthly MRR roll-forward formulas and ARR conversionConnect fresh sales, growth, and churn into a monthly MRR progression, transform MRR to ARR, and align revenue with customer figures, with clear, verifiable formulas for easy auditing in remote financial work.
Defining MRR, ARR, and related metricsLinking new, expansion, and churned MRRBuilding monthly MRR roll-forward schedulesConverting MRR to ARR and revenue linesReconciling revenue with customer countsLesson 7Workbook architecture: recommended tabs (Assumptions, Input Dashboard, Monthly Revenue Schedule, Customer Flow/Cohorts, Cost Schedule, P&L Summary, Sensitivity Scenarios, Audit & Logs)Craft a neat workbook with specific tabs for assumptions, inputs, revenue, customers, costs, profit and loss, and scenarios, promoting smooth flows, easy navigation, and distinct calculation and display areas for remote access.
Standard tab list and naming conventionsAssumptions and input dashboard structureMonthly revenue and customer flow schedulesCost schedules and P&L summary layoutScenario, audit, and log worksheet designLesson 8Core inputs and scenarios: defining and organising key assumptions (starting MRR, new MRR growth, churn, ARPA, pricing tiers, seasonality)Specify and arrange vital business drivers for your forecast, such as initial MRR, new sales growth, churn, average revenue per account, pricing levels, and seasonal patterns, structured for simple updates and scenario testing.
Identifying essential revenue driver inputsCapturing starting MRR and opening balancesModeling new MRR growth and sales capacityRepresenting churn, downgrades, and reactivationHandling ARPA, pricing tiers, and seasonalityLesson 9Cost modelling: modelling salaries, hosting, marketing, and tools by month; mapping hires and ramp; variable costs tied to usage or revenueTranslate staffing plans, supplier deals, and marketing strategies into monthly cost models, covering fixed and variable expenses, hiring build-ups, and usage-linked costs that grow with revenue or operations in remote Kiwi finance.
Classifying fixed vs variable operating costsModeling salary, benefits, and payroll taxesPlanning hiring dates, ramps, and backfillsScheduling marketing, software, and hosting spendLinking variable costs to usage or revenue
