Lesson 1Profit and cash flow basics: simple monthly gross margin and operating profit lines; basic cash flow items (deferred revenue, collections lag)Build simple but informative monthly profit and cash views, including gross margin, operating profit, and basic cash flow drivers such as collections lag, deferred revenue, and payment timing for major expense categories in your setup.
Modeling revenue, COGS, and gross marginEstimating operating expenses and EBITDACollections lag and accounts receivable logicDeferred revenue and prepayment handlingCash timing for payroll and vendor paymentsLesson 2Scenario and sensitivity setup: setting up scenario toggles, data tables, and one-click switches for alternative assumptionsExplore practical techniques to test alternative assumptions using scenario toggles, driver cells, and data tables, enabling one-click comparison of downside, base, and upside cases without breaking core model logic for your forecasts.
Defining base, downside, and upside casesBuilding scenario selector and driver cellsUsing Excel and Sheets data tables safelyDesigning one-click assumption switchoversTracking and documenting scenario changesLesson 3Customer flow & cohort modelling: simple cohort setup, retention curves, cohort-based revenue vs aggregate methodsUnderstand how to model customer movements over time using cohorts, from acquisition to churn and expansion, and compare cohort-based revenue forecasts with simpler aggregate approaches for different business models in Nigeria.
Mapping customer lifecycle and key statesSetting up monthly acquisition cohortsDesigning and applying retention curvesModeling expansion, downgrades, and churnComparing cohort vs aggregate revenueLesson 4Choosing the spreadsheet platform and file conventions: Google Sheets vs Excel Online, naming and folder structureDecide between Google Sheets and Excel Online for collaboration, performance, and integrations, then establish clear file naming, versioning, and folder structures that keep your 12-month forecast organized and auditable for remote teams.
Comparing Google Sheets and Excel OnlineCollaboration, permissions, and access controlPerformance limits and add-in integrationsFile naming and versioning standardsFolder structure for models and exportsLesson 5Model robustness and reusability: using named ranges, structured input table, separation of inputs/calcs/outputsApply modelling best practices that make your forecast durable and reusable, including named ranges, structured input tables, consistent formulas, and strict separation of inputs, calculations, and reporting outputs for efficiency.
Using named ranges and structured referencesSeparating inputs, calculations, and outputsColor-coding and labeling modeling conventionsError checks, alerts, and reasonableness testsPreparing the model for reuse and handoffLesson 6Revenue calculations: link between new MRR, expansion, churn; monthly MRR roll-forward formulas and ARR conversionLearn to connect new sales, expansion, and churn into a monthly MRR roll-forward, convert MRR to ARR, and reconcile revenue with customer counts, ensuring formulas are transparent, testable, and easy to audit in your work.
Defining MRR, ARR, and related metricsLinking new, expansion, and churned MRRBuilding monthly MRR roll-forward schedulesConverting MRR to ARR and revenue linesReconciling revenue with customer countsLesson 7Workbook architecture: recommended tabs (Assumptions, Input Dashboard, Monthly Revenue Schedule, Customer Flow/Cohorts, Cost Schedule, P&L Summary, Sensitivity Scenarios, Audit & Logs)Design a clean workbook layout with dedicated tabs for assumptions, inputs, revenue, customers, costs, P&L, and scenarios, ensuring consistent flows, clear navigation, and separation between calculations and presentation for remote use.
Standard tab list and naming conventionsAssumptions and input dashboard structureMonthly revenue and customer flow schedulesCost schedules and P&L summary layoutScenario, audit, and log worksheet designLesson 8Core inputs and scenarios: defining and organizing key assumptions (starting MRR, new MRR growth, churn, ARPA, pricing tiers, seasonality)Define and organize the core business drivers that power your forecast, including starting MRR, new sales, churn, pricing tiers, ARPA, and seasonality, and learn how to structure them for easy updates and scenario use in practice.
Identifying essential revenue driver inputsCapturing starting MRR and opening balancesModeling new MRR growth and sales capacityRepresenting churn, downgrades, and reactivationHandling ARPA, pricing tiers, and seasonalityLesson 9Cost modelling: modelling salaries, hosting, marketing, and tools by month; mapping hires and ramp; variable costs tied to usage or revenueLearn how to translate headcount plans, vendor contracts, and marketing plans into a monthly cost model, including fixed and variable costs, hiring ramps, and usage-based expenses that scale with revenue or activity in your firm.
Classifying fixed vs variable operating costsModeling salary, benefits, and payroll taxesPlanning hiring dates, ramps, and backfillsScheduling marketing, software, and hosting spendLinking variable costs to usage or revenue
