Lesson 1Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA): accessing GDP data, real vs nominal GDP, quarterly annualization, revisionsLearn how to get BEA GDP reports, tell nominal from real GDP, grasp quarterly yearly growth rates, and follow changes over time to assess the changing macro story.
Navigating BEA GDP data portalsReal vs nominal GDP and deflatorsQuarterly annualized growth calculationsGDP components and expenditure sharesTracking GDP revisions over timeLesson 2Inflation datasets: CPI and PCE—definitions, core vs headline, measurement differences, locating time seriesLook into CPI and PCE inflation ideas, headline against core measures, coverage and weighting differences, and how to find, download, and explain official inflation time series for macro and investment choices.
Definitions of CPI and PCE price indexesHeadline vs core: what is excluded and whyMeasurement differences and data sourcesLocating CPI and PCE series in FREDInterpreting inflation trends and volatilityLesson 3International organizations and cross-checks: IMF and World Bank time series for context and consistencyKnow how IMF and World Bank databases support national sources, how to get similar cross-country time series, and how to double-check levels, growth rates, and meanings to make sure macro analysis is steady.
IMF Data Portal and key macro datasetsWorld Bank WDI and topic-based searchesHarmonizing country codes and unitsComparing series across multiple providersSpotting inconsistencies and data breaksLesson 4Leading indicators databases: ISM PMI, Conference Board LEI, consumer confidence indices—where to find and how to useCheck major leading indicator datasets like ISM PMI, Conference Board LEI, and consumer confidence indices, learning where to get them, how they are made, and how to use them in predicting cycles.
ISM manufacturing and services PMIsConference Board LEI componentsConsumer confidence and sentiment indexesDiffusion indexes and threshold levelsUsing leading data in recession modelsLesson 5Data quality, revisions, and how to cite sources with month/year (best practices)Build a strict way to check macro data quality, understand first against changed releases, track past changes, and properly reference sources with month and year in professional research work.
First releases vs revised macro dataCommon sources of revisions and biasesUsing revision histories and vintagesChecking documentation and footnotesCiting data with date and source detailsLesson 6Treasury market and yield curve data: 2y, 10y, and other maturities; calculating spreads and reading auction resultsLearn how to get Treasury yield data across lengths, calculate key spreads like 2s10s, read yield curve shapes, and check auction results for signs of demand, liquidity, and policy hopes.
Sources for Treasury yield curve dataOn-the-run vs off-the-run securitiesCalculating 2s10s and other key spreadsInterpreting curve steepening and inversionReading Treasury auction result tablesLesson 7Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS): unemployment, payrolls, labor force participation, wage measures and seasonalityGet hands-on skills in reaching BLS labour market data, including unemployment, payrolls, participation, and wage measures, and learn how seasonal changes and survey setup affect trend reading.
Household vs establishment surveysUnemployment rate and U-3 vs U-6Nonfarm payrolls and sector breakdownsLabor force participation and demographicsWage and earnings measures, seasonal effectsLesson 8FRED and other aggregators: downloading series, frequency conversion, basic smoothing and trend extractionLearn how to use FRED and like aggregators to search, download, and change macro series, adjust times, use simple smoothing and trend filters, and arrange data for charts, comparison, and basic investment study.
Searching and bookmarking key macro seriesDownloading data in CSV and Excel formatsChanging data frequency and aggregation methodsApplying moving averages and simple filtersUsing FRED graphs and custom dashboardsLesson 9Practical checklist: step-by-step guide to assemble the specific 12–24 month dataset required by the case study (GDP, unemployment, inflation, policy rate, yield curve, one leading indicator)Follow a planned workflow to build a 12–24 month macro dataset for a case study, including GDP, unemployment, inflation, policy rates, yield curve spreads, and one leading indicator, ready for charts and regressions.
Defining the case study horizon and scopeSelecting core macro and market variablesAligning frequencies and calendar datesCleaning, labeling, and storing the datasetCreating summary charts and tablesLesson 10Federal Reserve releases and FOMC statements: how to find, read, and extract policy rate and guidanceLearn how to find Federal Reserve stats releases, FOMC statements, and minutes, pull policy rate paths and balance sheet data, and read forward guidance words for macro and market study.
Key Fed releases and publication calendarFinding FOMC statements and minutesIdentifying policy rate decisions and pathsReading forward guidance languageUsing SEP and dot plot information
