Lesson 1Profit and cash flow basics: simple monthly gross margin and operating profit lines; basic cash flow items (deferred revenue, collections lag)Create straightforward yet useful monthly profit and cash perspectives, covering gross margin, operating profit, and key cash drivers like payment delays, deferred income, and timing for main expense types.
Modeling revenue, COGS, and gross marginEstimating operating expenses and EBITDACollections lag and accounts receivable logicDeferred revenue and prepayment handlingCash timing for payroll and vendor paymentsLesson 2Scenario and sensitivity setup: setting up scenario toggles, data tables, and one-click switches for alternative assumptionsLook into useful methods to examine different assumptions with scenario switches, control cells, and data tables, allowing quick comparison of low, standard, and high cases without disrupting main model structure.
Defining base, downside, and upside casesBuilding scenario selector and driver cellsUsing Excel and Sheets data tables safelyDesigning one-click assumption switchoversTracking and documenting scenario changesLesson 3Customer flow and cohort modelling: simple cohort setup, retention curves, cohort-based revenue versus aggregate methodsGrasp how to model customer shifts over time with groups, from gaining to loss and growth, and contrast group-based revenue projections with basic total methods for various business types.
Mapping customer lifecycle and key statesSetting up monthly acquisition cohortsDesigning and applying retention curvesModeling expansion, downgrades, and churnComparing cohort vs aggregate revenueLesson 4Choosing the spreadsheet platform and file conventions: Google Sheets versus Excel Online, naming and folder structureChoose between Google Sheets and Excel Online for teamwork, speed, and connections, then set up clear file names, versions, and folder setups to keep your 12-month projection orderly and checkable.
Comparing Google Sheets and Excel OnlineCollaboration, permissions, and access controlPerformance limits and add-in integrationsFile naming and versioning standardsFolder structure for models and exportsLesson 5Model robustness and reusability: using named ranges, structured input table, separation of inputs/calcs/outputsUse best practices in modelling to make your projection lasting and reusable, with named ranges, organised input tables, uniform formulas, and clear division of inputs, calculations, and output reports.
Using named ranges and structured referencesSeparating inputs, calculations, and outputsColor-coding and labeling modeling conventionsError checks, alerts, and reasonableness testsPreparing the model for reuse and handoffLesson 6Revenue calculations: link between new MRR, expansion, churn; monthly MRR roll-forward formulas and ARR conversionLearn to link new sales, growth, and loss into a monthly recurring revenue progression, change it to annual recurring revenue, and match revenue with customer numbers, keeping formulas clear, verifiable, and simple to check.
Defining MRR, ARR, and related metricsLinking new, expansion, and churned MRRBuilding monthly MRR roll-forward schedulesConverting MRR to ARR and revenue linesReconciling revenue with customer countsLesson 7Workbook architecture: recommended tabs (Assumptions, Input Dashboard, Monthly Revenue Schedule, Customer Flow/Cohorts, Cost Schedule, P&L Summary, Sensitivity Scenarios, Audit and Logs)Plan a neat workbook design with specific tabs for assumptions, inputs, revenue, customers, costs, profit and loss, and scenarios, ensuring steady flows, easy movement, and division between calculations and displays.
Standard tab list and naming conventionsAssumptions and input dashboard structureMonthly revenue and customer flow schedulesCost schedules and P&L summary layoutScenario, audit, and log worksheet designLesson 8Core inputs and scenarios: defining and organising key assumptions (starting MRR, new MRR growth, churn, ARPA, pricing tiers, seasonality)Define and arrange the main business factors driving your projection, like initial monthly recurring revenue, new sales growth, loss rate, average revenue per account, price levels, and seasonal patterns, and structure them for simple changes and scenario application.
Identifying essential revenue driver inputsCapturing starting MRR and opening balancesModeling new MRR growth and sales capacityRepresenting churn, downgrades, and reactivationHandling ARPA, pricing tiers, and seasonalityLesson 9Cost modelling: modelling salaries, hosting, marketing, and tools by month; mapping hires and ramp; variable costs tied to usage or revenueLearn to turn staff plans, supplier agreements, and marketing strategies into a monthly cost model, including fixed and variable costs, hiring build-ups, and usage-linked expenses that grow with income or operations.
Classifying fixed vs variable operating costsModeling salary, benefits, and payroll taxesPlanning hiring dates, ramps, and backfillsScheduling marketing, software, and hosting spendLinking variable costs to usage or revenue
