Lesson 1Profit and cash flow basics: simple monthly gross margin and operating profit lines; basic cash flow items (deferred revenue, collections lag)Build simple but useful monthly profit and cash views, including gross margin, operating profit, and main cash flow drivers like collections delay, deferred revenue, and payment timing for big expense groups.
Modeling revenue, COGS, and gross marginEstimating operating expenses and EBITDACollections lag and accounts receivable logicDeferred revenue and prepayment handlingCash timing for payroll and vendor paymentsLesson 2Scenario and sensitivity setup: setting up scenario toggles, data tables, and one-click switches for alternative assumptionsLook at practical ways to test other assumptions using scenario switches, driver cells, and data tables, allowing one-click comparison of worst, base, and best cases without messing up the main model logic.
Defining base, downside, and upside casesBuilding scenario selector and driver cellsUsing Excel and Sheets data tables safelyDesigning one-click assumption switchoversTracking and documenting scenario changesLesson 3Customer flow & cohort modelling: simple cohort setup, retention curves, cohort-based revenue vs aggregate methodsLearn how to model customer changes over time using groups, from getting them to losing them and growing, and compare group-based revenue forecasts with easier total approaches for different business types.
Mapping customer lifecycle and key statesSetting up monthly acquisition cohortsDesigning and applying retention curvesModeling expansion, downgrades, and churnComparing cohort vs aggregate revenueLesson 4Choosing the spreadsheet platform and file conventions: Google Sheets vs Excel Online, naming and folder structureChoose between Google Sheets and Excel Online for teamwork, speed, and links, then set clear file names, versions, and folder setups that keep your 12-month forecast neat and checkable.
Comparing Google Sheets and Excel OnlineCollaboration, permissions, and access controlPerformance limits and add-in integrationsFile naming and versioning standardsFolder structure for models and exportsLesson 5Model robustness and reusability: using named ranges, structured input table, separation of inputs/calcs/outputsUse modelling best ways that make your forecast tough and reusable, including named ranges, set input tables, steady formulas, and strict split of inputs, calculations, and report outputs.
Using named ranges and structured referencesSeparating inputs, calculations, and outputsColor-coding and labeling modeling conventionsError checks, alerts, and reasonableness testsPreparing the model for reuse and handoffLesson 6Revenue calculations: link between new MRR, expansion, churn; monthly MRR roll-forward formulas and ARR conversionLearn to link new sales, growth, and churn into a monthly MRR roll-forward, change MRR to ARR, and match revenue with customer numbers, making sure formulas are clear, testable, and easy to check.
Defining MRR, ARR, and related metricsLinking new, expansion, and churned MRRBuilding monthly MRR roll-forward schedulesConverting MRR to ARR and revenue linesReconciling revenue with customer countsLesson 7Workbook architecture: recommended tabs (Assumptions, Input Dashboard, Monthly Revenue Schedule, Customer Flow/Cohorts, Cost Schedule, P&L Summary, Sensitivity Scenarios, Audit & Logs)Design a clean workbook with set tabs for assumptions, inputs, revenue, customers, costs, P&L, and scenarios, ensuring steady flows, clear navigation, and split between calculations and shows.
Standard tab list and naming conventionsAssumptions and input dashboard structureMonthly revenue and customer flow schedulesCost schedules and P&L summary layoutScenario, audit, and log worksheet designLesson 8Core inputs and scenarios: defining and organising key assumptions (starting MRR, new MRR growth, churn, ARPA, pricing tiers, seasonality)Define and organise the main business drivers for your forecast, including starting MRR, new sales, churn, pricing levels, ARPA, and seasons, and learn to set them for easy changes and scenario use.
Identifying essential revenue driver inputsCapturing starting MRR and opening balancesModeling new MRR growth and sales capacityRepresenting churn, downgrades, and reactivationHandling ARPA, pricing tiers, and seasonalityLesson 9Cost modelling: modelling salaries, hosting, marketing, and tools by month; mapping hires and ramp; variable costs tied to usage or revenueLearn how to turn staff plans, vendor deals, and marketing plans into a monthly cost model, including fixed and variable costs, hiring build-up, and use-based expenses that grow with revenue or work.
Classifying fixed vs variable operating costsModeling salary, benefits, and payroll taxesPlanning hiring dates, ramps, and backfillsScheduling marketing, software, and hosting spendLinking variable costs to usage or revenue
