Lesson 1Profit and cash flow basics: simple monthly gross margin and operating profit lines; basic cash flow items (deferred revenue, collections delay)Build simple yet useful monthly profit and cash views, including gross margin, operating profit, and basic cash flow drivers like collections delay, deferred revenue, and payment timing for main expense types.
Modeling revenue, COGS, and gross marginEstimating operating expenses and EBITDACollections lag and accounts receivable logicDeferred revenue and prepayment handlingCash timing for payroll and vendor paymentsLesson 2Scenario and sensitivity setup: setting up scenario switches, data tables, and one-click changes for other assumptionsLook at practical ways to test other assumptions using scenario switches, driver cells, and data tables, allowing one-click comparison of low, base, and high cases without spoiling main model logic.
Defining base, downside, and upside casesBuilding scenario selector and driver cellsUsing Excel and Sheets data tables safelyDesigning one-click assumption switchoversTracking and documenting scenario changesLesson 3Customer flow and group modelling: simple group setup, retention patterns, group-based revenue versus total methodsUnderstand how to model customer movements over time using groups, from getting them to churn and growth, and compare group-based revenue forecasts with simpler total approaches for different business types.
Mapping customer lifecycle and key statesSetting up monthly acquisition cohortsDesigning and applying retention curvesModeling expansion, downgrades, and churnComparing cohort vs aggregate revenueLesson 4Choosing the spreadsheet platform and file ways: Google Sheets versus Excel Online, naming and folder setupChoose between Google Sheets and Excel Online for working together, speed, and links, then set clear file naming, versions, and folder setups that keep your 12-month forecast organised and checkable.
Comparing Google Sheets and Excel OnlineCollaboration, permissions, and access controlPerformance limits and add-in integrationsFile naming and versioning standardsFolder structure for models and exportsLesson 5Model strength and reusability: using named ranges, structured input table, separation of inputs/calcs/outputsUse best practices for modelling that make your forecast lasting and reusable, including named ranges, structured input tables, steady formulas, and strict separation of inputs, calculations, and reporting outputs.
Using named ranges and structured referencesSeparating inputs, calculations, and outputsColor-coding and labeling modeling conventionsError checks, alerts, and reasonableness testsPreparing the model for reuse and handoffLesson 6Revenue calculations: link between new MRR, growth, churn; monthly MRR roll-forward formulas and ARR changeLearn to connect new sales, growth, and churn into a monthly MRR roll-forward, change MRR to ARR, and match revenue with customer numbers, ensuring formulas are clear, testable, and easy to check.
Defining MRR, ARR, and related metricsLinking new, expansion, and churned MRRBuilding monthly MRR roll-forward schedulesConverting MRR to ARR and revenue linesReconciling revenue with customer countsLesson 7Workbook structure: suggested tabs (Assumptions, Input Dashboard, Monthly Revenue Schedule, Customer Flow/Groups, Cost Schedule, P&L Summary, Sensitivity Scenarios, Audit & Logs)Design a clean workbook layout with special tabs for assumptions, inputs, revenue, customers, costs, P&L, and scenarios, ensuring steady flows, clear navigation, and separation between calculations and showing.
Standard tab list and naming conventionsAssumptions and input dashboard structureMonthly revenue and customer flow schedulesCost schedules and P&L summary layoutScenario, audit, and log worksheet designLesson 8Core inputs and scenarios: defining and organising key assumptions (starting MRR, new MRR growth, churn, ARPA, pricing levels, seasonal changes)Define and organise the main business drivers that power your forecast, including starting MRR, new sales, churn, pricing levels, ARPA, and seasonal changes, and learn how to structure them for easy updates and scenario use.
Identifying essential revenue driver inputsCapturing starting MRR and opening balancesModeling new MRR growth and sales capacityRepresenting churn, downgrades, and reactivationHandling ARPA, pricing tiers, and seasonalityLesson 9Cost modelling: modelling salaries, hosting, marketing, and tools by month; mapping hires and ramp-up; variable costs tied to use or revenueLearn how to turn headcount plans, vendor agreements, and marketing plans into a monthly cost model, including fixed and variable costs, hiring ramps, and use-based expenses that grow with revenue or activity.
Classifying fixed vs variable operating costsModeling salary, benefits, and payroll taxesPlanning hiring dates, ramps, and backfillsScheduling marketing, software, and hosting spendLinking variable costs to usage or revenue
