Lesson 1Detailed revenue drivers and segmentation: volume, pricing, product mix, geographic rollouts, TAM/SAM/SOM linkageThis section details revenue drivers such as volume, price, and mix, and shows how to segment by product, channel, and geography, while linking TAM, SAM, and SOM assumptions to granular revenue schedules and rollout timing in the model.
Modeling volume, price, and product mix impactsBuilding product and customer segment revenue bridgesGeographic rollout timing and ramp-up curvesTranslating TAM, SAM, SOM into revenue linesLesson 2CapEx, depreciation, and amortisation: useful life assumptions, maintenance vs growth CapExThis section explains how to forecast CapEx, classify maintenance versus growth spending, and model depreciation and amortisation using useful life, residual value, and tax rules, ensuring consistency between fixed asset schedules and financial statements.
Separating maintenance and growth CapEx itemsBuilding fixed asset roll-forward schedulesChoosing useful lives and residual value policiesModeling depreciation and amortization for taxLesson 3Model design and layout: inputs, workings, outputs separation and version controlThis section addresses model architecture, emphasising clear separation of inputs, workings, and outputs, consistent formatting, labelling, and version control practices that support collaboration, transparency, and efficient model updates.
Separating inputs, workings, and outputs tabsStandardizing formats, labels, and time structureDocumentation and annotation within the modelVersion control and change tracking methodsLesson 4Working capital modelling: receivables, inventory, payables days and cyclical effectsThis section focuses on forecasting working capital components, including receivables, inventory, and payables, using days and turnover ratios, and incorporates seasonality, growth, and policy changes into cash flow and funding requirements.
Modeling receivables using days sales outstandingInventory days, turns, and stock policy changesPayables days and supplier term assumptionsSeasonality and growth impacts on working capitalLesson 5Modelling operating items: forecasting margins, operating leverage, fixed vs variable costsThis section explains how to forecast operating items, including revenue-linked and fixed costs, margins, and operating leverage, and how to translate business drivers into detailed cost schedules that reconcile to projected financial statements.
Classifying fixed, variable, and semi-variable costsBuilding driver-based operating cost schedulesForecasting gross and EBITDA margin evolutionAnalyzing operating leverage and break-evenLesson 6Debt, interest, and capital structure: modelling existing debt facilities, covenants, refinancing assumptionsThis section covers modelling existing and new debt, including amortisation, interest calculations, fees, and covenants, and shows how to reflect refinancing, bullet repayments, and capital structure changes in the cash flow statement and balance sheet.
Building detailed debt amortization schedulesCalculating cash and PIK interest and feesIncorporating covenants and headroom testsModeling refinancing and leverage scenariosLesson 7Constructing a cash flow statement from projected financials: operating cash flow, investing cash flow, financing cash flow and free cash flow computationThis section shows how to derive the cash flow statement from projected income statement and balance sheet data, separating operating, investing, and financing flows, and computing free cash flow for valuation, credit, and internal decision-making.
Deriving operating cash flow from projectionsModeling investing cash flows and CapEx timingModeling financing cash flows and distributionsComputing free cash flow to firm and equityLesson 8Model audit checks and error controls: balance check, circular reference handling, sensitivity flags, scenario togglesThis section develops systematic model checks, including balance sheet balancing, cash flow reconciliation, and circularity handling, and introduces error flags, reasonableness tests, and scenario toggles to maintain model integrity over time.
Balance sheet and cash flow consistency checksDetecting and managing circular referencesDesigning error flags and reasonableness testsScenario and sensitivity toggles in the modelLesson 9Forecast framework: top-down vs bottom-up revenue forecasting techniquesThis section compares top-down and bottom-up revenue forecasting, showing when each is appropriate, how to reconcile them, and how to translate strategic plans, market data, and sales pipelines into structured, time-based revenue schedules.
Designing a top-down market share revenue buildBuilding bottom-up revenue from sales pipeline dataReconciling top-down and bottom-up forecast gapsLinking strategic plans to revenue time series
