Lesson 1Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA): accessing GDP data, real vs nominal GDP, quarterly annualisation, revisionsDiscover how to access BEA GDP releases, differentiate nominal from real GDP, grasp quarterly annualised growth rates, and monitor revisions across vintages to assess the developing macro narrative.
Navigating BEA GDP data portalsReal vs nominal GDP and deflatorsQuarterly annualised growth calculationsGDP components and expenditure sharesTracking GDP revisions over timeLesson 2Inflation datasets: CPI and PCE—definitions, core vs headline, measurement differences, locating time seriesDelve into CPI and PCE inflation concepts, headline versus core measures, coverage and weighting differences, and methods to locate, download, and interpret official inflation time series for macro and investment decision-making.
Definitions of CPI and PCE price indexesHeadline vs core: what is excluded and whyMeasurement differences and data sourcesLocating CPI and PCE series in FREDInterpreting inflation trends and volatilityLesson 3International organisations and cross-checks: IMF and World Bank time series for context and consistencyGrasp how IMF and World Bank databases supplement national sources, how to retrieve comparable cross-country time series, and how to cross-check levels, growth rates, and definitions to ensure consistency in macro analysis.
IMF Data Portal and key macro datasetsWorld Bank WDI and topic-based searchesHarmonising country codes and unitsComparing series across multiple providersSpotting inconsistencies and data breaksLesson 4Leading indicators databases: ISM PMI, Conference Board LEI, consumer confidence indices—where to find and how to useExamine principal leading indicator datasets such as ISM PMI, Conference Board LEI, and consumer confidence indices, discovering where to find them, how they are constructed, and how to apply them in forecasting cycles.
ISM manufacturing and services PMIsConference Board LEI componentsConsumer confidence and sentiment indexesDiffusion indexes and threshold levelsUsing leading data in recession modelsLesson 5Data quality, revisions, and how to cite sources with month/year (best practices)Cultivate a rigorous approach to evaluating macro data quality, comprehending preliminary versus revised releases, tracking historical revisions, and properly citing sources with month and year in professional research outputs.
First releases vs revised macro dataCommon sources of revisions and biasesUsing revision histories and vintagesChecking documentation and footnotesCiting data with date and source detailsLesson 6Treasury market and yield curve data: 2y, 10y, and other maturities; calculating spreads and reading auction resultsLearn to obtain Treasury yield data across maturities, calculate key spreads such as 2s10s, interpret yield curve shapes, and analyse auction results for insights into demand, liquidity, and policy expectations.
Sources for Treasury yield curve dataOn-the-run vs off-the-run securitiesCalculating 2s10s and other key spreadsInterpreting curve steepening and inversionReading Treasury auction result tablesLesson 7Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS): unemployment, payrolls, labour force participation, wage measures and seasonalityAcquire practical skills in accessing BLS labour market data, including unemployment, payrolls, participation, and wage measures, and understand how seasonal adjustment and survey design influence trend interpretation.
Household vs establishment surveysUnemployment rate and U-3 vs U-6Nonfarm payrolls and sector breakdownsLabour force participation and demographicsWage and earnings measures, seasonal effectsLesson 8FRED and other aggregators: downloading series, frequency conversion, basic smoothing and trend extractionMaster using FRED and similar aggregators to search, download, and transform macro series, adjust frequencies, apply simple smoothing and trend filters, and organise data for charting, comparison, and basic investment analysis.
Searching and bookmarking key macro seriesDownloading data in CSV and Excel formatsChanging data frequency and aggregation methodsApplying moving averages and simple filtersUsing FRED graphs and custom dashboardsLesson 9Practical checklist: step-by-step guide to assemble the specific 12–24 month dataset required by the case study (GDP, unemployment, inflation, policy rate, yield curve, one leading indicator)Follow a structured workflow to construct a 12–24 month macro dataset for a case study, encompassing GDP, unemployment, inflation, policy rates, yield curve spreads, and one leading indicator, prepared for charts and regressions.
Defining the case study horizon and scopeSelecting core macro and market variablesAligning frequencies and calendar datesCleaning, labelling, and storing the datasetCreating summary charts and tablesLesson 10Federal Reserve releases and FOMC statements: how to find, read, and extract policy rate and guidanceLearn to locate Federal Reserve statistical releases, FOMC statements, and minutes, extract policy rate paths and balance sheet data, and interpret forward guidance language for macro and market analysis.
Key Fed releases and publication calendarFinding FOMC statements and minutesIdentifying policy rate decisions and pathsReading forward guidance languageUsing SEP and dot plot information
