Lesson 1Detailed revenue drivers and segmentation: volume, pricing, product mix, geographic rollouts, TAM/SAM/SOM linkageThis section covers revenue drivers like volume, price, and mix, and shows how to break them down by product, channel, and geography, linking TAM, SAM, and SOM assumptions to detailed revenue schedules and rollout timing in the model.
Modeling volume, price, and product mix impactsBuilding product and customer segment revenue bridgesGeographic rollout timing and ramp-up curvesTranslating TAM, SAM, SOM into revenue linesLesson 2CapEx, depreciation, and amortisation: useful life assumptions, maintenance vs growth CapExThis section explains forecasting CapEx, sorting maintenance from growth spending, and modelling depreciation and amortisation using useful life, residual value, and tax rules, keeping fixed asset schedules in line with financial statements.
Separating maintenance and growth CapEx itemsBuilding fixed asset roll-forward schedulesChoosing useful lives and residual value policiesModeling depreciation and amortization for taxLesson 3Model design and layout: inputs, workings, outputs separation and version controlThis section covers model architecture, stressing clear split of inputs, workings, and outputs, uniform formatting, labelling, and version control to aid teamwork, openness, and smooth model updates.
Separating inputs, workings, and outputs tabsStandardizing formats, labels, and time structureDocumentation and annotation within the modelVersion control and change tracking methodsLesson 4Working capital modelling: receivables, inventory, payables days and cyclical effectsThis section deals with forecasting working capital parts like receivables, inventory, and payables using days and turnover ratios, factoring in seasonality, growth, and policy shifts for cash flow and funding needs.
Modeling receivables using days sales outstandingInventory days, turns, and stock policy changesPayables days and supplier term assumptionsSeasonality and growth impacts on working capitalLesson 5Modeling operating items: forecasting margins, operating leverage, fixed vs variable costsThis section shows how to forecast operating items, covering revenue-linked and fixed costs, margins, and operating leverage, turning business drivers into detailed cost schedules that match projected financial statements.
Classifying fixed, variable, and semi-variable costsBuilding driver-based operating cost schedulesForecasting gross and EBITDA margin evolutionAnalyzing operating leverage and break-evenLesson 6Debt, interest, and capital structure: modeling existing debt facilities, covenants, refinancing assumptionsThis section handles modelling current and new debt, covering amortisation, interest, fees, and covenants, and reflects refinancing, bullet repayments, and capital structure shifts in cash flow and balance sheet.
Building detailed debt amortization schedulesCalculating cash and PIK interest and feesIncorporating covenants and headroom testsModeling refinancing and leverage scenariosLesson 7Constructing a cash flow statement from projected financials: operating cash flow, investing cash flow, financing cash flow and free cash flow computationThis section demonstrates deriving the cash flow statement from projected income and balance sheet data, splitting operating, investing, and financing flows, and calculating free cash flow for valuation, credit, and decisions.
Deriving operating cash flow from projectionsModeling investing cash flows and CapEx timingModeling financing cash flows and distributionsComputing free cash flow to firm and equityLesson 8Model audit checks and error controls: balance check, circular reference handling, sensitivity flags, scenario togglesThis section creates systematic model checks like balance sheet balancing, cash flow reconciliation, and circularity management, plus error flags, reasonableness tests, and scenario toggles for lasting model reliability.
Balance sheet and cash flow consistency checksDetecting and managing circular referencesDesigning error flags and reasonableness testsScenario and sensitivity toggles in the modelLesson 9Forecast framework: top-down vs bottom-up revenue forecasting techniquesThis section compares top-down and bottom-up revenue forecasting, when to use each, how to align them, and turn strategic plans, market data, and sales pipelines into structured, time-based revenue schedules.
Designing a top-down market share revenue buildBuilding bottom-up revenue from sales pipeline dataReconciling top-down and bottom-up forecast gapsLinking strategic plans to revenue time series
